About News Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither Aug 27, 2020 Warren Cornwall Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither Voting by mail hasn’t given a big advantage to one political party, but Republican rhetoric could change the dynamic for November’s election. ALYSSA POINTER/ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION VIA APIn the United States, the coronavirus crisis has thrust a typically wonky debate—the effectiveness of mail-in voting—into the political spotlight. Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, this week again warned that expanding the use of mail-in ballots could give Democrats an edge in the November elections. Now, two independent studies suggest there’s little historical evidence to support that fear. But scientists warn that by making vote by mail a partisan issue, Republicans could lose mail-in votes and benefit Democrats in the midst of a caustic and pandemic-marred election season. Since 2000, a handful of states have switched almost exclusively to voting by mail, including Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, and Hawaii. Most researchers studied the moves to see whether they led to an increase in voter participation; largely unexplored, says Brigham Young University political scientist Michael Barber, was whether universal mail-in voting benefited one political party over another. That all changed when Republicans warned earlier this year that efforts to expand vote by mail could benefit Democrats. Barber and political scientist John Holbein at the University of Virginia decided to test those claims by comparing voting behavior in counties that switched to universal mail-in voting (175 counties in 2018) with the nearly 3000 counties that didn’t. They also looked at voter behavior before and after each changeover. They found that in presidential and midterm general elections between 1996 and 2018, switching to all-mail voting increased the percentage of residents who voted by 1.8% to 2.9%, they report today in Science Advances. When it came to the Democratic share of the vote, they found a tiny uptick in the share of votes that went to Democratic candidates for Congress, governor, and president—approximately 0.7%. But the difference was so small that the margin of statistical error means it’s possible there was no effect at all, Holbein says. “There might be a teensy, tiny effect on Democratic turnout.” Read the full article in Science Magazine John Holbein John Holbein is an associate professor of public policy, politics, and education at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Holbein studies political participation, political inequality, democratic accountability, political representation, and education policy. Read full bio Related Content John Holbein Civilian national service programs can powerfully increase youth voter turnout Research Enrolling young people to participate as Teach For America (TFA) teachers has a large positive effect on rates of voter turnout among those young people who participate. This effect is considerably larger than many previous efforts to increase youth voter turnout. After their 2 years of service, these young adults vote at a rate 5.7 to 8.6 percentage points higher than that of similar nonparticipant counterparts. These results suggest that civilian national service programs targeted at young people show great promise in narrowing the enduring participation gap between younger and older citizens in the United States. 400 million voting records show profound racial and geographic disparities in voter turnout in the United States Research This paper documents the extent and nature of inequities in voter participation in the United States with a level of granularity and precision that previous research has not afforded. John Holbein Among UVA's Inaugural Shannon Fellows News Batten professor Holbein is one of 15 faculty members chosen for a new UVA fellowship program recognizing groundbreaking research and commitment to service at UVA. How gender, race, age and voter ID laws affect whether a voter actually casts a ballot News Young Americans say they are interested in politics, but few of them vote. Writing for The Conversation, Batten School professor John Holbein offers some ideas on how to encourage them. Stay Up To Date with the Latest Batten News and Events Subscribe
John Holbein John Holbein is an associate professor of public policy, politics, and education at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Holbein studies political participation, political inequality, democratic accountability, political representation, and education policy. Read full bio
Civilian national service programs can powerfully increase youth voter turnout Research Enrolling young people to participate as Teach For America (TFA) teachers has a large positive effect on rates of voter turnout among those young people who participate. This effect is considerably larger than many previous efforts to increase youth voter turnout. After their 2 years of service, these young adults vote at a rate 5.7 to 8.6 percentage points higher than that of similar nonparticipant counterparts. These results suggest that civilian national service programs targeted at young people show great promise in narrowing the enduring participation gap between younger and older citizens in the United States.
400 million voting records show profound racial and geographic disparities in voter turnout in the United States Research This paper documents the extent and nature of inequities in voter participation in the United States with a level of granularity and precision that previous research has not afforded.
John Holbein Among UVA's Inaugural Shannon Fellows News Batten professor Holbein is one of 15 faculty members chosen for a new UVA fellowship program recognizing groundbreaking research and commitment to service at UVA.
How gender, race, age and voter ID laws affect whether a voter actually casts a ballot News Young Americans say they are interested in politics, but few of them vote. Writing for The Conversation, Batten School professor John Holbein offers some ideas on how to encourage them.